White House war advisor ROBERT PAPE reveals why Trump is trapped in a war with Iran, the risk of a nuclear breakout, the role of China in the conflict, and how the US is losing control of the Middle East.
Robert Pape is a political scientist and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats. He has advised every White House since 9/11 on military strategy and is the author of Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War.
He explains:
▪️The 3 stages of the escalation trap locking the US into war
▪️Why precision smart bombs trick leaders into strategic failure
▪️The hidden reality of Iran’s 400kg enriched uranium stockpile
▪️How killing the Supreme Leader made the Iranian regime more resilient
▪️The pattern that connects Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran
1. Stage 1: Tactical Success (3:51): The initial use of precision smart bombs creates a false sense of success because they destroy the physical target, but they fail to achieve strategic success (5:46).
2. Stage 2: Regime Change (30:02): Because the initial bombing didn’t solve the underlying problem (such as the location of nuclear materials), the conflict escalates to pursuing regime change as the only remaining option (30:04).
3. Stage 3: Ground Forces (31:32): To locate the dispersed nuclear material, the conflict escalates to deploying boots on the ground, a stage Pape believes has a 75% chance of happening under Trump (31:38 - 1:00:06).
And on the other side of the ocean….
Key statement by Iran’s new leader today
- “All US bases should immediately be closed in the region, those bases will be attacked”
- “We will obtain compensation from the enemy. If they refuse, we will take their assets to the extent we deem appropriate, and if that is not possible, we will destroy an equivalent amount of their property”
- “We have foiled attempts to divide the country”
- “The Strait of Hormuz must remain closed”
- “Countries in the region must clarify their position regarding those who have aggressed against Iran”
- “Discussions are ongoing regarding the opening of other fronts in areas where the enemy has little experience and is highly vulnerable. These other, new fronts may be activated if the state of war continues and if it is deemed appropriate”
He doesn’t sound like he is going to unconditionally surrender. Btw he has been the lead for the brutality against Iranian protesters.
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Full Episode: 16 min
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