30 Min NotebookLM analysis
The bullish view from Elon
The Bearish view
Ryan Brinkman has a $165 target.
About Ryan Brinkman
Ryan Brinkman is Head of J.P. Morgan's U.S. Autos & Auto Parts team. His team has consistently been ranked in the top 3 by Institutional Investor throughout his tenure (#3 in 2018). Prior to rejoining J.P. Morgan in 2012, Ryan covered automotive aftermarket stocks at Goldman Sachs and served on the U.S. Autos teams at J.P. Morgan & Bear Stearns and as an automotive industry consultant at PricewaterhouseCoopers in Detroit. He holds a bachelor's in Political Economy from Hillsdale College and a Master's in Accounting from Walsh College.
An Electrek report, citing data from Reuters and German road traffic agency KBA, shows Tesla's sales of 1,277 units in Germany for the month of January, down 59.5% year-over-year.
Sales are believed to be down due to the launch of the Model Y refresh and Musk's political push.
While Tesla's sales were down 59.5% in January, the overall German automotive market was down 2.8%. Battery-electric vehicle sales were up 53.5% year-over-year in Germany in January, meaning this was likely a Tesla problem and not the overall EV market.
Data shows sharp declines in the month of January across several European markets, which could be related to Musk's politics push and the Model Y update. Here are the sales figures below:
Germany: -59.5%
United Kingdom: -18.2%
France: -63.4%
Netherlands: -42.5%
Norway: -40.2%
Spain: -75.4%
Sweden: -46.0%
Denmark: -40.9%
Portugal: -31.0%
The overall drop was 50.4% year-over-year in January for the countries above combined.
How about China, where 36% of sales comes from?
Tesla (TSLA) sales in China fell 11% in January to 63,328, according to the China Passenger Car Association.
That's in a market where new-energy passenger vehicles jumped 31% year-over-year. BYD Co. Ltd. (HK:1211), the market leader, saw sales surge 48%.