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Not Your Advisor
Slow Monday except $TSLA and Janet Yellen 🎧 #190 (April 29)
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Slow Monday except $TSLA and Janet Yellen 🎧 #190 (April 29)

$SPY $QQQ $IWM $ES_F $VIX $AAPL $AMZN $META $MSFT $NVDA $TSLA $TLT $TBT $BTC $ARKK $ARKB $FBTC $BTCO $IBIT $BRRR $SMCI $ARM $RDDT $DJT $GLD $SLV $GDX #THEFED

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Thanks F.B for the email

Hi NYUGrad!

I hope you are doing fine!

I got your podcast/email download right before taking off on a flight to Asia on Saturday, and was very happy to have it as the first listening of the trip.

Thank you very much for the very useful updates on Gold stocks and the overall market.

Best wishes,

F.B (Paying Subscriber)

Binge NYUGrad is live

New resource I want to share with Free members

True Rate of Unemployment

Tracks the percentage of the U.S. labor force that does not have a full-time job (35+ hours a week) but wants one, has no job, or does not earn a living wage, conservatively pegged at $25,000 annually before taxes.

Some highlights by time

3pm Treasury Quarterly Refunding announcement caused that selling. They need to borrow moaaAAARRRR!!!!!

During the April – June 2024 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $243 billion in privately-held  net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-June cash balance of $750 billion.[2]  The borrowing estimate is $41 billion higher than announced in January 2024, largely due to lower cash receipts, partially offset by a higher beginning of quarter cash balance.[3]

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2304

2:30pm

$SPY 21m shares traded vs 71m avg as of 2:30pm (70% shy). Everyone go home early and hug your family

GOOGL losing a lot of the earnings pop

MSFT lost all of the earnings pop

Yen carry trade is more important than all of this. 20 Trillion +

One of the most popular trades in foreign-exchange markets is losing its luster as the Bank of Japan signals the end of its negative interest rate policy.

The appeal of using borrowed yen to buy securities denominated in higher-yielding currencies, known as a carry trade, is in flux after remarks this week from the BOJ’s Hajime Takata hinted at a potential policy change. That’s giving pause to money managers, especially now that leveraged funds have boosted their bets against the yen.

Understand the inter relationships

  • Yen crashed Sunday

  • this is bad for Japanese population as they are an island and need to import things

  • If usd rises as the currency pair should with yen falling, that is a head wind for the market. Higher rates. Lower stocks.

  • Yen begins to get propped up Monday am. USD begins to fall

Watch this dynamic. Is Japan finally going to allow the Yen to rise? You better book your trip to Japan before they do.

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