I had an audio issue and the audio only goes to 5 min 46 sec. But it was the majority of the content. The only piece that got lost was picked up on the show notes below in the section “Stuck out”.
One note I would like to add is that the indices are just as likely to go to new highs as new lows since its so heavily weighted to a few stocks. We are in the middle of a converging price zone and it seems the main event, as usual, will be the Fed Rate decision Wed Sep 20. That is when the Death Star will either zap the bulls or the bears.
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Show Notes
Summary of the day
On the surface this chart is the entire story for the year. The next chapter starts next week with rate decision and guidance Sep 20 at 2pm ET. As you can see in the chart, we can easily go up to new highs or crack the teal and or purple lines of support below.
For the broader market we are still just stuck 3%-3.5% below this yr high on SPY and QQQQ
Intraday
10:24am Still fighting this line
1:37pm Complexion…risk is being sold while they prop the markets through Mag 7.
86 new highs vs 238 new lows
Breadth and Breadth volume.
Breadth
95 new highs
308 new lows
36% advancing 58% declining
71% below 50 day ma
Stuck out
Just some macro signs to be weary of
Econ sensitive stocks all rolling over
Industrial, construction, housing, housing related.
Examples
United Rentals
Parker Hannifin
Builders First Source
Retail group is weak
CA unemployment is picking up. Now 4.6%
Auto loans outstanding 1.5 trillion, a record
Avg home is 3x salary during great depression vs today at 8X
Debt to income ratio for home buyers hit 40%. 1st time in history. In 2008 it was 39%
Breadth is horrible
Megacaps are holding up the world again.
Amazon new yearly highs today
Adobe reports thu.
Strong
AMZN
Weak
NFLX
SG
ZG
HOV
EXTR
ROKU
CVNA
DAL
CROX
AFRM
What to watch
PPI Thu
Watch the mag 7
Watch yields
Economic data
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