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Show Notes
Want to wish subscribers and anyone in west Florida the best with hurricane Idalia coming
Summary of the day
Jobs numbers were printed and revised worse than expected. Interpretation was “yay, Powell kept saying jobs market still too tight and wages sticky high. So bad jobs = more chance of easy money. Let's buy stocks!"
Today was a very strong day and considered a potential follow through day. Usually need a broad participation of many individual shares. Not just 1 group or magnificent 7.
But it doesn’t mean it is guaranteed. One thing we are critically missing is increase in volume.
William O'Neil’s definition:
A follow-through day occurs during a market correction when a major index closes significantly higher than the previous day, and in greater volume. It happens Day 4 or later of an attempted rally. Leading up to a follow-through day, an attempted rally takes place during a downtrend when a major index closes with a gain. The rally attempt continues intact as long as the index doesn't make a new low.
Breadth
162 new highs
141 new lows
77% advancing 18% declining
56% below 50 day ma
Stuck out
The 50 day ma backtest has happened across the board.
Yields fell today.
On Monday basic materials led. Today tech was strong
AAPL, TSLA, MSFT, AMZN, META all under or kissing 50 day
Goog and NVDA only 2 of 7 above
Reminder this is end of month. Historically end of month has been strong as that is when statements are emailed.
3 day weekend, 4 day weekend for many. 5 day weekend for some. So expect low volume.
Strong
Weak
Yields
Volatility
What to watch
Watch mag 7
Watch yields
Florida gulf coast hurricane Idalia
Crypto (are animal spirits alive?)
Economic data
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