You arrive at a pool party and notice everyone jumping into the pool are making perfect splash-less entries!

Last week it looked like this…

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• Held rates and says he will stay on as Governor until the criminal investigation is 100% withdrawn and closed.

• Basically blamed the price of oil impacting inflation. in other words targeting Trump for causing this inflation

• Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, & Google Report Earnings - Tonight
  Apple Reports Earnings - Tomorrow

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Emanuel Leutze

Washington Crossing the Delaware 1851

Metropolitan Museum of Art

The American Revolution was sparked by a complex mix of economic, political, and social tensions that reached a breaking point in the late 18th century. While the conflict is often boiled down to "taxation without representation," the roots of the rebellion ran much deeper.

Ideological Shifts (The Enlightenment)

The intellectual landscape of the colonies was changing. Leaders like Thomas Jefferson and John Adams were heavily influenced by Enlightenment thinkers like John Locke. Concepts of “natural rights” (life, liberty, and property) and the “social contract”—the idea that a government only has power as long as it protects the rights of its people—provided the moral framework for revolution.

So I asked AI to compare America today and the American Revolution in context of ’s The Fourth Turning is Here, as I re-read for the third time.

Neil Howe’s work, particularly in The Fourth Turning is Here, posits that history moves in a recurring cycle of four “Turnings,” each lasting roughly 20 to 22 years. He identifies the American Revolution not just as a war, but as the “Crisis” phase (the Fourth Turning) of the Revolutionary Saeculum.

When comparing the themes in his latest work to the era of the American Revolution, several striking commonalities emerge based on his generational theory.

1. The Breakdown of Institutional Trust

In both the current era and the years leading up to 1776, Howe identifies a “High” that has completely decayed.

• The Revolution: The established order of the British Empire and colonial governance lost legitimacy. What once provided security was seen as oppressive or dysfunctional.

• Today: Howe argues we are in a similar period where public trust in Congress, the media, and the financial system has bottomed out, creating a vacuum that demands a new social contract.

2. The Rise of “Hero” and “Artist” Archetypes

Howe’s theory relies on the interaction of generational archetypes.

• The Revolution: The “Hero” generation (the G.I.s of their day) were the young soldiers of the Continental Army—disciplined, collective-minded, and willing to sacrifice for a new civic identity.

• Today: Howe views Gen Z as the modern “Hero” archetype. Like the youth of the 1770s, they are characterized by an increasing drive for community, rule-following (within their own cohorts), and a demand for institutional overhaul.

3. The “Big Threshold” of Social Consolidation

A core theme in The Fourth Turning is Here is that “Crisis” eras are not just about destruction; they are about simplification and consolidation.

• 1776: The complex, nuanced debates of the 1760s were stripped away until only one question remained: independence or loyalty? Society polarized into two camps, eventually forcing a unified (albeit bloody) resolution.

• Modern Day: Howe suggests we are reaching a similar “gate,” where the culture wars and political fragmentation will eventually be forced into a singular, high-stakes conflict or choice that defines the nation for the next century.

4. Total Social Mobilization

In his analysis of the American Revolution, Howe emphasizes that the Fourth Turning requires “total” involvement.

• Communal Effort: Just as the Revolution required the creation of the Continental Association and local committees of safety, Howe notes that modern Crises usually involve a massive expansion of government or collective power to meet a perceived existential threat.

• The Culmination: Both eras share the “climax” structure—a period of 3 to 5 years where the threat (whether the British Crown or modern economic/political collapse) reaches a breaking point that resets the “seasons” of history.

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QQQ 31m vs 64m traded

SPY 32m vs 84m traded

Massive Wed / Thu ahead

Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, & Google Report Earnings - Wednesday
Apple Reports Earnings - Thursday

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FUN FACT: In 2009, the entire U.S. stock market was worth $13 trillion.
Today, the top 5 companies alone are worth $20 trillion.
(Credit: Tim Knight)

Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, & Google Report Earnings - Wednesday
Apple Reports Earnings - Thursday

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The probabilities are very low something bad will happen to you in the subway system unless you frequent hotspots.

Per capita you have the benefit of a large population and it becomes a numbers game.

But to decrease your chances even more here is a tip not even many lifelong residents know.

The “Zebra board” is designed to be noticed by 1 person inside the Subway system, and that is the train conductor on every train!

They use it to gauge where to stop the train on each subway platform. You will notice they stop their conductor control room in front of the Zebra striped marking every time!

Here is a video of many examples as they are not placed in the same area of every station. But generally they are near the middle car.

If you fall victim to an attack of any sort, the simple fact the conductor is in the same train car decreases the time for first responders to reach you. The conductor can radio emergency services on their com systems rather than a traditional 911 call, and has the capacity to give much more precise location.

Cell service may not be avail. Or your battery drained. You may be incapacitated, hurt, surrounded or knocked out. The attacker may have already stolen your phone. Bystanders may elect not to help you for fear of harm or simple terror. Having a conductor in your train car increases your chances exponentially!

I hope you never need to even think about this type of scenario, but being street smart and taking steps to protect yourself and your family are always a good idea.

And apply common sense. Avoid subways between 10pm -6am. You find that to be peak hours for drunk riders and mentally ill. If you are a woman, have pepper spray. Try to travel in a group. Use cabs. Or walk. It is healthy and the avg time it takes is 90 seconds per NYC block going north or south. Avenues are longer so 3 min each depending on your health.

Here are the top 25 Stations with the most crime in NYC.

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$CAR Avis is plummeting. Down over 72% from peak yesterday. You need a gain of over 230% to break even. Never get involved with parabolic up. They often have express elevators down too. See also $BIRD

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Full transparency…

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Honored to be recommended by aka The Informationalist. Go check his Substack out which already has a big following.

James is a former hedge fund manager, and has over 30 years experience in finance.

As seen in Fox Business, CNBC, Bloomberg, and Yahoo Finance

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One follow up from yesterdays deep dive into Knife defense.

Quick poll

Here is a clip of an officer, Jared Wihongi, who also trains military and police forces in multiple disciplines of martial arts.

The quick summary. If survivability is 20% from a knife attacker, proper training might bring that up to 40%. And if you are armed, survivability may rise to 70%. But it will still be very messy.

I will not go quietly into the night like a wounded sheep.

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Finding analogs of pattern recognition in martial arts

Today I have something off the beaten path of stocks and finance. My disclaimer is no knife defense practice will be 100% effective. The best defense is common sense and intuition to avoid being there in the first place, and run if you can. There are often many cues and clues to something bad about to happen.

But sometimes evil finds us and our families in compromised situations and some of us live in cities where the rights of protecting oneself with the 2nd amendment is almost a legal battle in itself.

If you want to skip all of this, go to time marker: 11min 10 sec

I highly recommend this seminar with coach Paulo Rubio. It is a 7 hr / 1 day commitment. (His August Kansas event needs to be rescheduled for World Cup).

Plenty of opportunities coming up in Phoenix, Houston, Los Angeles, Upland CA, Montreal, Portugal, and Switzerland.

You get beginner level slow instruction that builds throughout the day, ending in cognitive load drills and simulations. And the drills can be done at home by yourself or ideally with a partner.

Here is what one of those drills looks like in slow motion.

Here is a POV vantage of another base drill at speed.

How fast is a real knife attack? As fast as you can blink.

This guy, even after the 1st attack was blocked by officer #1, had the time to slash and stab officer #2 in the back twice! video has two camera angles. This is graphic so be warned.

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(Image Credit Hedgeye)

I am skeptically long in my Safety names and a few speculative trades. While I am not bearish, this is the time to shop for hedges and insurance.

A few posts I shared of my read of markets the past few weeks. If you are a free subscriber I sincerely hope you consider upgrading at a discount.

Learn Auction Market Principles

1. On April 14 I shared 1 stock that gave the safest way to play this rally even if you were late to the party
   

2. The same day, I also shared with no paywall a long idea and setup in Oracle, with a $155 price level to push off of.
   

3. On April 13 I have 13 charts setting up bullish

4. On April 8 podcast I reported on the follow thru day. and I was waiting and ready in search of one after March 30. I even noted that one April 1 a follow through day opportunity was squandered.

Performance on April 8, 2026:

• S&P 500: The index jumped 2.51% (or 165.96 points) to close at 6,782.81.

• Nasdaq Composite: The tech-heavy index rallied 2.80% (or 617.15 points) to close at 22,635.00.

• Safety 30 was up 3.6% that day!

• Market Context: This rally marked the sixth straight day of gains for both indices. The gains were largely driven by a reversal in energy prices, with WTI crude oil falling by more than 15%. While stocks soared, they still remained below their pre-war highs, and volatility was high as investors monitored the stability of the ceasefire.

Trade Volumes:

• S&P 500 Volume: On April 8, 2026, the S&P 500 recorded a volume of approximately 5.9 billion shares. This was higher than the previous day’s volume (April 7, 2026) of roughly 4.5 billion shares.

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Meanwhile an air conveyor belt of war flying things into the Gulf.

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(Image Credit Grok)

Preface: This is not financial advice. Just my observations and having some fun comparing and contrasting past performance and other examples of hyperbolic moves and busts.

What transpired in 2025?

Between April and October 2025, Oklo Inc. ($OKLO) experienced a “parabolic” rally, surging from a low of approximately $17.42 in early April to an all-time high of $193.84 on October 15, 2025—a gain of over 1,000%.

The surge was driven by a “perfect storm” of geopolitical support, a massive shift in AI energy requirements, and key contract wins.

1. The AI Data Center “Energy Grab”

The primary catalyst was the realization that the AI revolution requires an unprecedented amount of electricity. Data center consumption was projected to more than double by 2030, and nuclear energy—specifically Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) like Oklo’s—emerged as the only carbon-free solution capable of providing 24/7 “baseload” power.

• The Meta Deal: In late 2025, Oklo signed a binding agreement with Meta for a 1.2 GW nuclear campus, which served as a major validation of their commercial scale.

• Sam Altman Factor: As the Chairman of Oklo and CEO of OpenAI, Altman’s dual role fueled investor speculation that Oklo would become the preferred energy provider for the next generation of AI superclusters.

2. “Nuclear Renaissance” Executive Orders

On May 23, 2025, a series of comprehensive executive orders were signed to revitalize the American nuclear industry. These directives mandated:

• Fast-tracking of regulatory approvals for SMRs.

• Government incentives for domestic fuel production.

• A shift in U.S. nuclear policy that created significant tailwinds for pre-revenue companies like Oklo.

3. Major Contract Wins & Partnerships

• U.S. Military Validation: In June 2025, Oklo received a “Notice of Intent to Award” from the Defense Logistics Agency to deploy its Aurora powerhouse at Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska. This was the first commercial microreactor deployment for the U.S. military.

• International Expansion: The company signed an MOU with Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP) in May 2025, signaling a path toward global deployment and leveraging KHNP’s operational expertise.

4. Financial & Institutional Inflows

• Capital Raises: In June 2025, Oklo successfully raised $400 million in a public offering priced at $60.00, which strengthened its balance sheet and signaled massive institutional confidence.

• Wall Street Upgrades: Major firms like Goldman Sachs and Bank of America moved to bullish ratings during this window, citing the “unprecedented demand” from hyperscalers (Amazon, Google, Microsoft).

Let’s take a look at the chart and see what an unlikely repeat could result in.

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Dear readers,

Here is ’s latest piece. If you missed it, it is a must read and no paywall.

BillCara.com

THE RALLY IS REAL. THE REASON IS WRONG.

April 14, 2026…

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19 days ago · 7 likes · Bill Cara

As a long time learner/mentee of Bill I felt relieved I have been sharing many of the same themes with you all here.

- breadth has been horrible

- the focus on the Buffett cash position or the Buffett indicator that I share daily

- my stay in safety call rhymes with his all cash call

- be cautious of this rally

- I got the sectors right (first energy, then semi ai and uranium)

- disciplined requirements need to be met before trusting this market

- the area I missed and was so curious to read about was his analysis on the SPR and IEA suppressing oil, is likely a one time bullet being spent now with no ammo to do so again if Hormuz remains closed.

While I do not have 50 plus years on Wall St like Bill, I am proud of building a methodology and framework on how to listen to the markets true intentions.

Here are the nuts and bolts of mine, which I plan to teach my kid as soon as she is old enough:

I would never have been able to mimic Bill’s Instat scoring system and he still is teaching me to this day. I highly recommend you subscribe to his service.

https://billcara.ghost.io/

ORCL is up about 9% from the $155 level I noted just yesterday! As the title says, don’t be led by the nose by anyone. Including me! Learn to spot these types of setups and trade them as a life skill that no one can take from you!

If you don’t subscribe to paywall content, here is a discount.

Hat tip

Allbirds shoe co announces they are now an ai play up 666%.

Lol

Allbirds, a direct-to-consumer shoe brand that ballooned to everyday popularity a decade ago, announced Wednesday it is pivoting to AI compute infrastructure with a long-term vision to become "a fully integrated GPU-as-a-Service (GPUaaS) and AI-native cloud solutions provider."

Tax Day!

IRS says Americans are getting back a whopping 10% more back in refunds after the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA). That amounts to an average of $300 per filer. Don’t spend it all on one trip to the gas station!

However it is better than what we had! It did help our family a lot. Typically as a rule I try to owe vs getting a refund, and owed less thanks to OBBBA.

And if you are a last minute filer don’t forget to expense paid subscriptions to newsletters as continuing education expense. Talk to your accountant first!

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Image Credit Gemini (Homer sailing home in The Odyssey)

70% of s&p 500 were strong by noon

“SPY is the Universal Basic Income”

-

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None of this content are reflective of my own opinions. They are solely based on Professor Robert Pape.

My own personal perspective (if you care) is that this conflict will go on a while and eventually build up and include China and Russia. Either we see peace with a joint agreement with USA China Russia Iran and Israel. Or this will expand to WW III.

Full source video or Part 2

Part 1 is below from March.

Gemini Briefing doc 🥷👇

Strategic Briefing: The Iran Escalation Trap and the Shifting Global Balance of Power

Executive Summary

This briefing synthesizes the strategic analysis provided by Professor Robert Pape, an expert in military targeting and air power, regarding the current conflict with Iran. The core finding is that the United States is currently ensnared in an “escalation trap” where military actions have failed to weaken Iran, instead strengthening the regime’s political resolve and regional influence.

Modeling of air campaigns suggests that conventional bombing cannot eliminate Iran’s nuclear materials or its deeply buried drone and missile arsenals. Following the failure of leadership decapitation and the subsequent loss of control over the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict is transitioning into a high-risk ground war phase. Concurrently, a “fourth center of world power” is emerging as Iran aligns with Russia and China to challenge U.S. hegemony. The situation is exacerbated by Israel’s role as a “diplomatic spoiler,” repeatedly terminating potential negotiators and peace contacts. Without a radical shift toward a deal involving the military containment of Israel and a reciprocal nuclear monitoring agreement, the U.S. faces a prolonged ground war or a precipitous decline in global economic and geopolitical standing.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. The Failure of Conventional Air Power

A central theme of the analysis is the disconnect between tactical military success and strategic victory. Despite the U.S.’s technical superiority, air campaigns have proved insufficient in achieving long-term objectives.

The “Gold and the Pan” Analogy

Modeling of hypothetical and actual bombing campaigns against Iran’s nuclear sites (such as Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan) reveals a persistent limitation:

• Target Destruction vs. Material Survival: U.S. bombers can destroy industrial facilities (the “pan”), but they cannot destroy the enriched uranium (the “gold”). The material remains intact beneath the rubble, allowing Iran to “kick the can down the road” and resume enrichment later.

• Hardened Arsenals: Iran has deeply buried its arsenals of drones and missiles. While above-ground launchers are easily destroyed, the core military capability remains functional and continues to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Lessons from Vietnam

The current strategy repeats errors identified in the Vietnam War:

• Logistics Resistance: In Vietnam, the U.S. destroyed over 80% of the Ho Chi Minh Trail’s throughput, yet the remaining 20% was sufficient to sustain the insurgency and bolster Viet Cong morale.

• Political Reaction: Military force often energizes a population to work harder to overcome damage, overwhelming tactical military effects with political resistance.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. The Four Stages of the Escalation Trap

The conflict is described as a multi-stage progression from which the U.S. has found it difficult to deviate.

Stage

Description

Status

Stage 1

Leadership Decapitation: U.S. bombs targets and kills leaders, but the regime evolves and emerges stronger.

Completed

Stage 2

Horizontal Escalation: The strengthened regime retaliates, specifically by taking control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Completed

Stage 3

Ground Operations: Movement of Marines and ground forces to secure beachheads and oil fields.

Ongoing/Imminent

Stage 4

Emergence of a Fourth Power: Iran becomes a permanent, emerging center of world power, integrated with Russia and China.

Emerging

Current Assessment: There is a 70% probability of a full-scale ground operation. This is driven by the need to secure the Strait of Hormuz and physically seize enriched uranium, as air power has failed to resolve these issues.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3. Israel as a “Diplomatic Spoiler”

The briefing identifies a pattern of Israeli military actions that have systematically undermined U.S. diplomatic efforts to reach a negotiated settlement.

• Targeting Negotiators: In June 2025, Israeli air power killed Iranian negotiators just 36 hours after President Trump announced intent to negotiate.

• The February 28 Bombing: Israel initiated the bombing campaign that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, reportedly forcing the U.S. into an air campaign it was still negotiating to avoid.

• The Larijani Assassination: On March 17, 2026, Israel killed Ali Larijani, whom President Trump described as the “primary contact” for a workable 10-point peace proposal. Trump noted this “reset the clock” on a potential deal.

• The “Paper Tiger” Narrative: Prime Minister Netanyahu has publicly characterized Iran as a “weak and crippled” entity, a view the analysis suggests is a false assumption that underestimates Iranian resilience.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4. Geopolitical Realignment and the “Fourth Center”

The conflict is facilitating a shift from a unipolar or tripolar world (U.S., Russia, China) to a new configuration that includes Iran as a major power.

• Allied Distancing:

  • India: Remains neutral or edges toward Iran to secure oil supplies.

  • Japan: Distancing itself from the U.S. following Trump’s attempts to “browbeat” leadership into providing military support.

• Gulf Coalition Fragmentation:

  • Iraq: Distancing from U.S. military presence.

  • Oman: Moving closer to Iran through proposed toll-sharing in the Strait.

  • Saudi Arabia: Seeking security guarantees from Pakistan rather than the U.S.

• The Russia-Iran-China Axis: Russia provides Iran with military targeting data to keep U.S. carriers at bay. Together, Russia and Iran control approximately 30% of the world’s oil, creating a bloc capable of inflicting “mega economic consequences” on the West.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5. Economic Vulnerabilities: The “Oil Cliff”

The U.S. economy faces significant risks due to the global and fungible nature of oil.

• Price Shocks: Oil prices have risen from approximately $3.10 to $4.60 per gallon in some U.S. regions since late February.

• Supply Scarcity: A 20-30% loss of world oil would create a “cliff effect” within 6 to 8 weeks, as global storage capacity is insufficient to cover the deficit.

• Debt and Interest: Rising inflation and bond rates would increase the cost of servicing the $40 trillion U.S. debt, potentially forcing cuts to Social Security and Medicaid.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6. Humanitarian Impacts and Internal Iranian Dynamics

U.S. rhetoric and tactical choices are having profound effects on the 92 million citizens of Iran.

• Trump’s “Civilization” Threat: Rhetoric regarding the destruction of an entire civilization acts as a “declared statement of genocidal intent.” This has bonded the Iranian public—including the formerly pro-democracy movement—to the regime for protection.

• Infrastructure Targeting: Plans to take down the electric power grid by targeting 10-130 key nodes would have catastrophic humanitarian results:

  • Cessation of dialysis and life-saving surgeries.

  • Massive food spoilage due to lack of refrigeration.

  • Measurable decline in national life expectancy.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7. The 10-Point Proposal and Potential Off-Ramps

Iran has submitted a proposal that validates its status as a regional hegemon. Key points include:

1. Permanent ceasefire and cessation of strikes in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen.

2. Toll collection in the Strait of Hormuz ($2 million per ship).

3. Lifting of all sanctions and return of frozen assets.

4. Right to enrich uranium (at 3.5%) without seeking nuclear weapons.

5. War reparations paid to Iran for reconstruction.

The Recommended Alternative

To avoid the binary choice of a disastrous ground war or an Iranian hegemon, the analysis suggests a “military containment of Israel”:

• Legislative Teeth: Congress could pass a bill cutting all military and economic aid to Israel if it attacks Iran.

• Reciprocal Monitoring: Israel would join the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and allow IAEA inspections of its nuclear materials as a quid pro quo for Iran accepting on-site verification.

Conclusion: The “Lame Duck” Trap

The analysis concludes that President Trump is losing domestic and international power as the world recognizes his loss of control over the situation. NATO is described as “for all practical purposes dead,” as European allies refuse to follow U.S. military orders that they view as politically and economically suicidal. The U.S. remains caught between Stage 3 (ground war) and Stage 4 (Iranian power), with the window for a stable, mid-ground resolution closing rapidly.

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If you have been following along you, know that the majority of the names making it onto the daily new highs list has recently been Semi-Conductors. Just as energy has been for past few weeks.

Below are clear balance areas setting up. Just my observations:

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